Are you confused like I am? We hear that the Covid-19 vaccine is a wonder drug that will "save us all", then we hear that it has only a 66% efficacy. That doesn't sound that good to me. What is really going on here? Is the vaccine something I should get, or just a waste of time, money, and effort? Here is the good news.
We are being confused by semantics.
- To me, I use "effective" to mean whether something will work at all, but this is not how scientists are using the term. To them it means how well the drug can prevent you from getting any symptom of the illness.
- All I care about is living and not being damaged permanently by the covid-19 virus. That is very "effective" to me. All our covid-19 vaccines are very "effective" in this way.
- Scientific definition of Efficacy - "whether a drug demonstrates a health benefit over a placebo or other intervention when tested in an ideal situation, such as a tightly controlled clinical trial." Thaul, Susan (2012-06-25). How FDA Approves Drugs and Regulates Their Safety and Effectiveness (CRS 7-5700, R41983) (CRS Report for Congress). Washington, DC: Congressional Research Service (CRS). p. 4.
- Effectiveness means how well the drug works in the "real world".
This is what it means
- In scientific trials, if the drug completely keeps you from getting the virus at all, then it is said to have a 100% efficacy.
- Very few drugs can totally prevent anyone from ever having that virus.
- For example: The COVID-19 Vaccine Moderna has a 90.9% efficacy for those at risk and a 94% efficacy for normal people.
- So out of the old and weak, nearly 91% percent of them will never experience any symptom of the virus. 94% of people with normal health will never have any symptom of the virus.
- All the covid-19 vaccines are similarly good at preventing covid-19 symptoms.
- Normally, during the flu season each year, 15 out of every 75,000 people will die from the flu and more than 100 will be hospitalized.
- The Covid-19 virus has killed about 150 out of very 75,000 people and hospitalized several hundred.
- So far, no one who has had the vaccine has died from the covid-19 virus, and few people are needing to be hospitalized.
- It means that though we can not get rid of all the SARS viruses, such as the "common" cold, and "the flu", we can make Covid-19 (a SARS virus) so mild that it becomes just another "flu".
Will life be "Normal" soon?
- There are now other variants of the covid-19 virus.
- Of those vaccinated with our current covid-19 vaccine, none have died from the new variants.
- The medical leaders state that our present covid-19 vaccine will provide considerable immunity to the new variants.
- They also believe that this immunity will be enough to put even these covid-19 variants into a "normal flu" category.
- It will take a while to fully get all variants down to a mild symptom level and to get everyone vaccinated.
- Though you shouldn't become very ill if you have had the vaccine, you can still get the covid-19 virus or any of its variants.
- Wearing a mask and social distancing can keep you from getting the covid-19 virus or its variants.
- If you have had the vaccine for covid-19 and become ill with the virus, it might be so mild that you will not realize that you have it and you could still spread it to other people.
- Continuing social distancing and wearing masks will help to keep those who have been vaccinated, but who are ill, from spreading covid-19 and its variants to those who have not yet been able to receive the vaccine.
- If the people who have been vaccinated quit wearing masks, then those who do not yet have the protection of the vaccine may think all is "safe" and also quit wearing masks.
- We all need to continue to wear masks and social distance until everyone is vaccinated, and we are ALL truly safe.
Things are looking up!
- Just because a few people get a vaccination, it will not make covid-19 disappear.
- We will have variants to deal with and perhaps even other vaccines to make.
- Just because the world can't instantaneously go back to "normal", doesn't mean that the vaccine is ineffective. It is one of the most effective vaccines we have ever had, but it is not magical.
- You can still get the virus even if you have been vaccinated, but you probably won't die or need to be hospitalized.
- Even if you have been vaccinated, you will still be able to give the virus to others, like any other "flu", if you have it.
- This means that even if you have been vaccinated, you will need to still wear a mask and social distance to protect yourself from getting covid-19, or a variant, from those who have not yet been vaccinated.
- It is going to take time, patience, and the cooperation of people all around the world stop the spread of this virus.
- Though it will also take faith, love, and a lot of effort, we now have the means to control the covid-19 virus and return to a more normal life.
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